… osio Sarah dawado
Dear gentle blog reader,
I’m a big fan of Mark Mobius, emerging market expert extraordinaire. His recent analysis of China’s economic prospects for 2012 are very interesting. Here’s a snippet from his report:
With the debt situation in Europe continuing to further unravel and dim economic prospects in the U.S., many have come to believe that the star of the “dragon descendants” has the potential to rise even further in the coming years. China’s GDP growth is expected to moderate to around 8.2% in 2012, which is high compared to developed economies.
Exports are expected to fall in 2012 in light of the global slowdown and investors have raised concerns about the potential impact on China. However, there remains a common misperception of China being predominantly an export-driven economy. As I’ve written previously, this is not actually true; in 2011 domestic investment and local consumption together contributed US$6.8 trillion as compared to US$2.1 trillion from exports. The export of goods and services as a percentage of GDP is also expected to fall from 38% in 2007 to an estimated 28% in 2012.
Here’s the rest of the report:
Rise of the Dragon
It takes a lot of courage to release the familiar and seemingly secure, to embrace the new. But there is no real security in what is no longer meaningful. There is more security in the adventurous and exciting for in movement there is life, and in change there is power. ~Alan Cohen